Sign in or 
| Version | User | Scope of changes |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 2010, 4:51 AM EDT (current) | idealpragmatist | |
| Apr 26 2010, 4:49 AM EDT | idealpragmatist | 366 words added, 116 words deleted |
Changes
Key: Additions Deletions
user idealpragmatist is making predictions here and reviewing them - (please ignore, challenge, do one better?)
After Week 1
Sugar: played the flirt very aggresively (you can't do that!) and suffered immediate ejection.
James: is playing athele (can he switch gears at all?) (+1 aparently not.)
Cirie: is a schemer. but too soon! she should be a follower. ( +1 she became one)
Prediction: Heroes are in happy valley for the moment. Rupert and Stephanie are injured and laying low. James, JT and Colby are busy playing athlete. (Mostly acurate +1) Tom is acting captain/guru but not agressively, and no-one will confront him or challenge. Cirie is the only troublemaker at the moment and that puts her at risk and at the center of whatever small drama is going to happen. (+1 for seeing her as the swing vote, -1 for her not being he schemer.) Amanda is playing nobody. If Tom is smart he will encourage continued cooperation among the jocks and hope to watch the villains canibalize themselves. (Turns out he wasn't, now in jeapoardy, the warning was accurate +1, didn't expect him to divide he tribe himself. -1)
Villains: are playing the bottleneck phase already. (+1 they are a disorganized mess)
Boston Rob: Is playing captain. (+1 is he ever)
Russell: Is being an aggresive schemer. (duh!)
Parvarti: is playing flirt.
Prediction: Stage is set for an early Rob / Russell battle. (+1) Russell will win with assists from Pavarti, Sandra, Courtney. This alliance will then turn black widow very quickly and Russell will have to scamble to survive. Coach and Jerri will keep their heads down and be part of a strong alliance of oddballs and nobodies and survive the bottlneck.
Review: With another immunity win by villains, they are yet to be put under pressure. lucky for them. Overall the results were in the scope of what was predicted or warned against.
Week 2
Heroes
Didn't notice in week one that the heroes were factionalized. We'll they don't show everything, do they? Even factionalized they are still voing off the weakest - as they should in competitive mode. Now there is a clear 4-2-2 configuration. JT has sided for now with the athletes. This team is still mostly stable - they are physically superior, but it appears they are intellectually outgunned.
*JT will stick with Rupert, Amanda, and James to dominate the heroes - all 4 see this as their ticket to the merge.
*Cirie will play nobody and stick with Colby and nobody Candace and vote out Tom if need be.
*Tom is bitter and will scheme unsuccessfully. If heroes lose again he is expendable, will be voted out 7-1.
*James over the op behavior has weakened him socially, or was it an act - and Candace should play flirt and get him to switch over to cirie and candace.
*Colby will play nobody.
Predictions:
The next challenge will be endurance based. advantage heroes.
Villains
Nothing has changed, he original prediction remains to be tested. Russel needs all the weakest players to rally around him and decapitate the tribe - taking rob out.
Epidode 7 Predictions
Russell's convincing the idiot tyson to effectively vote himself off the island makes for brilliant tv, but the result won't help Russell one bit. Russell's social game is entirely lacking, and his allies are as worthless to him as he is to them, only sneaky tricks and phishing can help him now. Russell is no threat to Rob now and if he was smart he will drop the challenge. Rob ought to keep him in the game and remove instead russell's allies who are more dangerous to Rob.
Prediction. Week 8 starts a shift to an all female alliance, which by week ten will have claimed Rupert and Rob.
Prediction: If the tribes are still separate, Candace is next to leave the heroes and Parvati the villains. If the tribes merge JT or Rupert may be the odd man out.
Prediction: Coach playing the fool is working for him. Unless he has a breakdown he makes the final four.
Review: Well, no points for not predicting Rob's alliance's crumble, but the original premise was that Russell would being seen as a weapon by the women in general and parvati in particular. The week one prediction is almost entirely realized. So there has to be a +2 for that. Will they use this weapon against other women? This is very much a disaster for any notion of the villains as a tribe but with the merge impending, it is not such a big deal. Coaches abstaining from this vote clearly identifies him as a coward, and a whipped one at that.
Why did Rob get booted? In villains land, when the going gets tough, the weak vote out the strong. Its that simple. That was Jerri's thought. Remove the best all around player and like your odds in the ensuing scramble.
The most interesting question this week: Did jerry do the right thing? I think she did. Prior to tonight it was a 3-2-3 split. In Rob's alliance she was peripheral, likely the first to be cut. Her best survival strategy is staying the swing vote. Here's how she will do it.
Prediction: Jerri, Courtney, Steph and Coach take out Russell if they get a chance next week.
Who does parvati want to get rid of next? Jerri. Russell is still useful and no one else has a strategic clue.
As for the Heroes, it is another case of the week one prediction looking pretty good in week 7.
Strategy for each player. They are playing well as a team. Only if they lose will they talk alliances and the harmony will get smashed for good.
Rupert: is playing Captain. He is in no danger till the merge.
JT: is playing schemer. He will steal the idol, and work with colby and candace to take out amanda before the merge.
Candace: is playing nobody. Will be the swing vote if necessary, so things will get more interesting for her.
Colby: is playing athlete.
Amanda: is playing follower. Boot pick.
Russell is what he is. If he is smart he will XXcross Parvati now, and ally with Jerri.
Parvati is still playing flirt to twist russells mind.
Coach is following.
Danielle is following parvati.
Steph: Is going to start scheming the women's alliance.
Candace: is following steph.
Jerri: will be scheming.
Boot Pick russell or parvati.
Week 8 review.
Well, +4 for labelling pretty much every player's strategy effectively. -2 for not predicting the outcomes. The most interesting thing of course is that russell's alliance apparently defected on him (we don't know, but it seems highly inlikely that russell would plan to split their vote. Its fun to think about how in control russell felt, to the point where he was actually signing his votes - all the while it was parvati who was actually picking. My best read of that situation is to assume that the women's alliance is game on. Steph and candace have no where else to go. Jerri and coach totally missed their chance to take charge - it was lying there on the table, and niether had the sac for it. Pathetic. Steph gets the gold star of the week for her smooth scramble play.
Week 9 Predictions.
Rupert: has switched from captain to nobody.
JT: is playing schemer. Looking for friends on the other side cause he burned them all in Heroes.
Candace: Is starting to scheming (in a general vacuum of scheming they need to line up JT on the block just in case.)
Colby: is playing athlete.
Amanda: is going to switch to flirt with colby. (to get him to vote JT if need be,)
Russell is what he is. And he is not too smart. And he is too darn useful to P.
Parvati is going to be openly scheming next week (or already was off camera) putting her merge strategy in place.
Danielle is following parvati.
Steph: Allies with Parvati as a follower
Candace: is following steph.
Jerri: is a lost and lonesome nobody. Boot Pick.
Week 10 Recap.
So in the last two episodes, the false flag idol drama played itself out. JTsuffered the consequences of his own gullibility.
Pavarti played both idols, neither for herself. If she had an informant on the Heroes side she felt she could trust, she would have only played one.
Why JT? Why not Colby or Russell? This was a serious strategic error, it seemed to be decided long ago without much thought. JT was the most likely to swing over to the villains camp.
If Parvati had played one idol, and not played it for herself, she would have played it for Jerri. She was right to conclude that the battle of the tribes ensured a 5-5 split, and she ought to have known Steph was not worth saving.
Week 11 predictions.
Nine votes. Are the 4 hero votes are solid? The villains certainly aren't. Jerri and Steph have little to gain from sticking with the villains. Russell may well defect. Parvarti will regret playing both idols. Next week the nobodies will rise to the top as their loose votes will be decisive. Next week will be a one week showdown between heroes and villains. after which all alliances will dissolve and reform anew.
Russell: now he gets a chance to really prove himself. His best outcome was final two with Parvati, but now teaming with a very weak player like Jerri. He will regret giving up his idol, and if smart he will sell out parvarti as his best chance to stay off the block. I do not predict he will remain in parvarti's spell (but he might be that dumb).
Parvati is trying for an alliance of women (suprise!) to pretend to take out russell but actually colby, Will steph play? Will Candace flip?
Steph: Feels like she never belonged in the villains camp. (she didn't) Needs some payback, and russell is her preferred but parvarti will do.
Danielle: Needs to make a move, to surface on the Jury's radar. But won't still following parvati.
Jerri: is a lost and lonesome, and will ally with whomever asks the nicest. (Russell) But it is likely with the idols out of play, playing nobody will keep her around for a few weeks.
Rupert: Needs to keep Amanda in the heroes circle.
Candace: stands pat.
Colby: is following rupert
Amanda: is not going to switch.
Next week: 7-2 Parvati
After Week 1
Sugar: played the flirt very aggresively (you can't do that!) and suffered immediate ejection.
James: is playing athele (can he switch gears at all?) (+1 aparently not.)
Cirie: is a schemer. but too soon! she should be a follower. ( +1 she became one)
Prediction: Heroes are in happy valley for the moment. Rupert and Stephanie are injured and laying low. James, JT and Colby are busy playing athlete. (Mostly acurate +1) Tom is acting captain/guru but not agressively, and no-one will confront him or challenge. Cirie is the only troublemaker at the moment and that puts her at risk and at the center of whatever small drama is going to happen. (+1 for seeing her as the swing vote, -1 for her not being he schemer.) Amanda is playing nobody. If Tom is smart he will encourage continued cooperation among the jocks and hope to watch the villains canibalize themselves. (Turns out he wasn't, now in jeapoardy, the warning was accurate +1, didn't expect him to divide he tribe himself. -1)
Villains: are playing the bottleneck phase already. (+1 they are a disorganized mess)
Boston Rob: Is playing captain. (+1 is he ever)
Russell: Is being an aggresive schemer. (duh!)
Parvarti: is playing flirt.
Prediction: Stage is set for an early Rob / Russell battle. (+1) Russell will win with assists from Pavarti, Sandra, Courtney. This alliance will then turn black widow very quickly and Russell will have to scamble to survive. Coach and Jerri will keep their heads down and be part of a strong alliance of oddballs and nobodies and survive the bottlneck.
Review: With another immunity win by villains, they are yet to be put under pressure. lucky for them. Overall the results were in the scope of what was predicted or warned against.
Week 2
Heroes
Didn't notice in week one that the heroes were factionalized. We'll they don't show everything, do they? Even factionalized they are still voing off the weakest - as they should in competitive mode. Now there is a clear 4-2-2 configuration. JT has sided for now with the athletes. This team is still mostly stable - they are physically superior, but it appears they are intellectually outgunned.
*JT will stick with Rupert, Amanda, and James to dominate the heroes - all 4 see this as their ticket to the merge.
*Cirie will play nobody and stick with Colby and nobody Candace and vote out Tom if need be.
*Tom is bitter and will scheme unsuccessfully. If heroes lose again he is expendable, will be voted out 7-1.
*James over the op behavior has weakened him socially, or was it an act - and Candace should play flirt and get him to switch over to cirie and candace.
*Colby will play nobody.
Predictions:
The next challenge will be endurance based. advantage heroes.
Villains
Nothing has changed, he original prediction remains to be tested. Russel needs all the weakest players to rally around him and decapitate the tribe - taking rob out.
Epidode 7 Predictions
Russell's convincing the idiot tyson to effectively vote himself off the island makes for brilliant tv, but the result won't help Russell one bit. Russell's social game is entirely lacking, and his allies are as worthless to him as he is to them, only sneaky tricks and phishing can help him now. Russell is no threat to Rob now and if he was smart he will drop the challenge. Rob ought to keep him in the game and remove instead russell's allies who are more dangerous to Rob.
Prediction. Week 8 starts a shift to an all female alliance, which by week ten will have claimed Rupert and Rob.
Prediction: If the tribes are still separate, Candace is next to leave the heroes and Parvati the villains. If the tribes merge JT or Rupert may be the odd man out.
Prediction: Coach playing the fool is working for him. Unless he has a breakdown he makes the final four.
Review: Well, no points for not predicting Rob's alliance's crumble, but the original premise was that Russell would being seen as a weapon by the women in general and parvati in particular. The week one prediction is almost entirely realized. So there has to be a +2 for that. Will they use this weapon against other women? This is very much a disaster for any notion of the villains as a tribe but with the merge impending, it is not such a big deal. Coaches abstaining from this vote clearly identifies him as a coward, and a whipped one at that.
Why did Rob get booted? In villains land, when the going gets tough, the weak vote out the strong. Its that simple. That was Jerri's thought. Remove the best all around player and like your odds in the ensuing scramble.
The most interesting question this week: Did jerry do the right thing? I think she did. Prior to tonight it was a 3-2-3 split. In Rob's alliance she was peripheral, likely the first to be cut. Her best survival strategy is staying the swing vote. Here's how she will do it.
Prediction: Jerri, Courtney, Steph and Coach take out Russell if they get a chance next week.
Who does parvati want to get rid of next? Jerri. Russell is still useful and no one else has a strategic clue.
As for the Heroes, it is another case of the week one prediction looking pretty good in week 7.
Strategy for each player. They are playing well as a team. Only if they lose will they talk alliances and the harmony will get smashed for good.
Rupert: is playing Captain. He is in no danger till the merge.
JT: is playing schemer. He will steal the idol, and work with colby and candace to take out amanda before the merge.
Candace: is playing nobody. Will be the swing vote if necessary, so things will get more interesting for her.
Colby: is playing athlete.
Amanda: is playing follower. Boot pick.
Russell is what he is. If he is smart he will XXcross Parvati now, and ally with Jerri.
Parvati is still playing flirt to twist russells mind.
Coach is following.
Danielle is following parvati.
Steph: Is going to start scheming the women's alliance.
Candace: is following steph.
Jerri: will be scheming.
Boot Pick russell or parvati.
Week 8 review.
Well, +4 for labelling pretty much every player's strategy effectively. -2 for not predicting the outcomes. The most interesting thing of course is that russell's alliance apparently defected on him (we don't know, but it seems highly inlikely that russell would plan to split their vote. Its fun to think about how in control russell felt, to the point where he was actually signing his votes - all the while it was parvati who was actually picking. My best read of that situation is to assume that the women's alliance is game on. Steph and candace have no where else to go. Jerri and coach totally missed their chance to take charge - it was lying there on the table, and niether had the sac for it. Pathetic. Steph gets the gold star of the week for her smooth scramble play.
Week 9 Predictions.
Rupert: has switched from captain to nobody.
JT: is playing schemer. Looking for friends on the other side cause he burned them all in Heroes.
Candace: Is starting to scheming (in a general vacuum of scheming they need to line up JT on the block just in case.)
Colby: is playing athlete.
Amanda: is going to switch to flirt with colby. (to get him to vote JT if need be,)
Russell is what he is. And he is not too smart. And he is too darn useful to P.
Parvati is going to be openly scheming next week (or already was off camera) putting her merge strategy in place.
Danielle is following parvati.
Steph: Allies with Parvati as a follower
Candace: is following steph.
Jerri: is a lost and lonesome nobody. Boot Pick.
Week 10 Recap.
So in the last two episodes, the false flag idol drama played itself out. JTsuffered the consequences of his own gullibility.
Pavarti played both idols, neither for herself. If she had an informant on the Heroes side she felt she could trust, she would have only played one.
Why JT? Why not Colby or Russell? This was a serious strategic error, it seemed to be decided long ago without much thought. JT was the most likely to swing over to the villains camp.
If Parvati had played one idol, and not played it for herself, she would have played it for Jerri. She was right to conclude that the battle of the tribes ensured a 5-5 split, and she ought to have known Steph was not worth saving.
Week 11 predictions.
Nine votes. Are the 4 hero votes are solid? The villains certainly aren't. Jerri and Steph have little to gain from sticking with the villains. Russell may well defect. Parvarti will regret playing both idols. Next week the nobodies will rise to the top as their loose votes will be decisive. Next week will be a one week showdown between heroes and villains. after which all alliances will dissolve and reform anew.
Russell: now he gets a chance to really prove himself. His best outcome was final two with Parvati, but now teaming with a very weak player like Jerri. He will regret giving up his idol, and if smart he will sell out parvarti as his best chance to stay off the block. I do not predict he will remain in parvarti's spell (but he might be that dumb).
Parvati is trying for an alliance of women (suprise!) to pretend to take out russell but actually colby, Will steph play? Will Candace flip?
Steph: Feels like she never belonged in the villains camp. (she didn't) Needs some payback, and russell is her preferred but parvarti will do.
Danielle: Needs to make a move, to surface on the Jury's radar. But won't still following parvati.
Jerri: is a lost and lonesome, and will ally with whomever asks the nicest. (Russell) But it is likely with the idols out of play, playing nobody will keep her around for a few weeks.
Rupert: Needs to keep Amanda in the heroes circle.
Candace: stands pat.
Colby: is following rupert
Amanda: is not going to switch.
Next week: 7-2 Parvati
